Many of us were talking about the possibility of an inverted yield curve since a year. It is a leading indicator for a recession and closely watched. It was immanent at the end of 2018. Prices started to go up slightly, Powell hiked interest rates because under Trump the economy was
Read MoreWhile loans and credit cards are full of debt consumer confidence at an all time low. I thought it could reverse a little, but no, it actually is accelerating downward. As outlined in my last analysis when the Central Banks buying more and more assets they create assets in their
Read MoreUsually a recession starts in the manufacturing sector. And when the layoffs are coming people also start to save on services. But we can see that the development in the service sector is much more dramatic. Inflation is eating everything here. How does it work? Due to monetary policies, money
Read MoreDue to the war in Ukraine a worldwide food shortage is expected. Ukraine is a major exporter for wheat and corn and Russia is a major fertilizer exporter. The ports for Ukraine are blocked. Odessa is blocked by the Russians on Snake Island. Global buyers were banking on India as
Read MoreWhat is the UMCSI Showing to us? The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of
Read MoreAnd if they do so the stock market will further crash. And if they do not do it, Inflation will accelerate. A recession and rising inflation is here. Buckle up guys.
Read MoreI am still testing my Excel Spread sheet. BUT hey, so far so good. Basic thoughts on Statistics With calculating expected moves on a stock by calculating the mean profits per day for a certain term we know where we expect the price to be based on history. Now you
Read MoreWhen we take a look at the past 22 years we can see when ever the 10 Year Treasury Note hit a certain level and the yield curve reversed and inverted the crisis hit. The QQQ like other ETFs dropped significantly. The reason this did not happen in late 2018
Read MoreI am basing this on several indicators. And finally some banks come to the same conclusion. Inflation always precedes a recession. I will continue to short the market. Buy long term long Put or Sell Call Credit Spreads #1 Inverted Yield Curve But one of the most important is the
Read MoreWorking with weekly charts I love the IWM. Why is that? Because it has not moved much in over a year as we can see in the black line in the image. It is also said that the IWM is a leading indicator and shows the way of the SPX
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