Many of us were talking about the possibility of an inverted yield curve since a year. It is a leading indicator for a recession and closely watched. It was immanent at the end of 2018. Prices started to go up slightly, Powell hiked interest rates because under Trump the economy was
Read MoreWhile loans and credit cards are full of debt consumer confidence at an all time low. I thought it could reverse a little, but no, it actually is accelerating downward. As outlined in my last analysis when the Central Banks buying more and more assets they create assets in their
Read MoreUsually a recession starts in the manufacturing sector. And when the layoffs are coming people also start to save on services. But we can see that the development in the service sector is much more dramatic. Inflation is eating everything here. How does it work? Due to monetary policies, money
Read MoreWhat is the UMCSI Showing to us? The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of
Read MoreAuto sales are down and so is manufacturing employment. Retails sales are up which is weird, since they should come down as well, That they are up IMO is because of inflationary spending. Recession is ahead. People are paying more for less goods. We are in a Stagflation. GDP expectation
Read MoreYou must consider a few developments in regard to Inflation, interest rate hikes, war and economic stagflation. Where is the economy heading and why do I short the Russel 1000. There are a few datasets I am following and a few political events. I wont put this all into one
Read MoreGDP Estimate for the US corrected to 5.1% for Q4, 2021. My estimate for the GDP is 20,662 Trillion Dollars. This would be an astronomical 6.07% growth in the last quarter of 2021! According to GDP NOW the GDP number might come out lower at 19.725 Trillion Dollars. Either way,
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