Many of us were talking about the possibility of an inverted yield curve since a year. It is a leading indicator for a recession and closely watched. It was immanent at the end of 2018. Prices started to go up slightly, Powell hiked interest rates because under Trump the economy was
Read MoreWhile loans and credit cards are full of debt consumer confidence at an all time low. I thought it could reverse a little, but no, it actually is accelerating downward. As outlined in my last analysis when the Central Banks buying more and more assets they create assets in their
Read MoreUsually a recession starts in the manufacturing sector. And when the layoffs are coming people also start to save on services. But we can see that the development in the service sector is much more dramatic. Inflation is eating everything here. How does it work? Due to monetary policies, money
Read MoreWhat is the UMCSI Showing to us? The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of
Read MoreAuto sales are down and so is manufacturing employment. Retails sales are up which is weird, since they should come down as well, That they are up IMO is because of inflationary spending. Recession is ahead. People are paying more for less goods. We are in a Stagflation. GDP expectation
Read MoreI dont agree on everything what Steven is saying but he has some interesting points to make. The RUBEL is about to collapse despite the selling of Foreign currencies by Russia.I am still betting on a interest rate hike by the Feds in 2 weeks due to extreme inflation, caused
Read MoreYou must consider a few developments in regard to Inflation, interest rate hikes, war and economic stagflation. Where is the economy heading and why do I short the Russel 1000. There are a few datasets I am following and a few political events. I wont put this all into one
Read MoreWith an estimated GDP growth of only 0.5% for Q3 21 it tells me that the Bull Market is coming to an end. My Flags going on “Stay Flat” Yellow!! This would be a catastrophic drop of -3.7% from Q2. #Stagflation #GDP #Options Maybe it is time to Buy some
Read MoreWith the collection of data from the Atlanta FEDs we see a rapidly deteriorating US economy. The GDP forecast dropped from 6.1 annualized GDP growth to 1.3!! This is a major concerning development. If we take the formula of GDP = Money Supply x Velocity of Circulation we receive a
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