Calgary Option Project

Trading has to be boring

Trading can be fun and is challenging. Trading is a number game. Why? If you have a rigid system that produce a certain success rate you will have losers. But all over all the statistical numbers and ratios will prevail. You must put all odds into your favor and own the bank in the casino. The bank wins but doesn't know if the next is a winner.
We compile data on a monthly base for weekly charts. We open one trade weekly after two up candles in the IWM for now. 4 weeks rolling trades. They mostly expire and we keep the credit. If not we take the loss. 

On a daily base we put the closing price into our Excel sheet and see what comes out. Recap. Wait for the candles. Enter the trade if the writing is right. Set an alarm and that's it. 

Trading is 90% research and 10% mouse clicking. Trading should not excite you but your life and family

Trading has to be simple

We use a trading system that is derived from statistics. We compile weekly OHLC prices over a period of 5 years. We are selling Call Credit Spreads in the current environment. 
They have the following characters:
  • They make money in a moderate up trend
  • They make money in a flat market
  • They make money in any market downturn
Statistics give us the following:
  • Standard deviation
  • Short entry levels at ~2.25 SD for a credit
  • Long entry level at ~3 SD for hedging
  • Probability of success (~ 90%) and failure.
  • Expected gain in an up trending market
  • 30 DTE for Exit
  • ~ 5% ROC per trade
  • Exit Trade at Break Even